The “Li-ion Battery and Manufacturing Gear – 2024” report from Work together Evaluation states that world shipments of Li-ion batteries surged by 38.8% year-on-year in 2023, reaching a brand new excessive of >1,100 GWh. In 2024, whole shipments are estimated to develop by 21.2% year-on-year to >1,330 GWh, pushed up by sturdy demand within the vitality storage market. This development momentum will proceed sooner or later, with the sector registering a 21.4% compound annual development price (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, rising to >3,515 GWh in 2029.
In contrast with a projected 21.9% CAGR (2023 to 2029) for world Li-ion battery shipments in final 12 months’s report, we’ve revised down the common annual development price by 0.5 proportion factors over the identical interval. That is largely because of the slowdown in electrical automobile (EV) manufacturing and gross sales in European and American markets, which resulted in diminished development for EV batteries, significantly within the short-term.
Asia Pacific Stays Largest Regional Market
Our forecast interval (as much as 2029) signifies Asia Pacific would be the largest regional marketplace for Li-ion batteries, accounting for 65.3% of whole world shipments, or almost 720 GWh, in 2023, and 60.9% in 2029. This area will develop at a CAGR of 18.3% from 2024 to 2029, barely beneath the worldwide common. Along with China being the world’s largest marketplace for each EV and ESS batteries, India, Japan and South Korea are anticipated to be among the many high 10 international locations for Li-ion battery shipments by 2029.
EMEA was the next-largest marketplace for lithium batteries, accounting for a 21.0% share in 2023. However, owing to stagnant demand for EV batteries within the area, its share is anticipated to say no to 16.9% in 2024. Over the forecast interval, lithium battery shipments in EMEA are anticipated to develop at a 5-year-CAGR of 25.5%, accounting for 19.9% of the worldwide whole in 2029.
The Americas area will benefit from the highest development price (CAGR 29.4%) over the forecast interval, with almost 675 GWh projected to be shipped in 2029. In 2023, gross sales of Li-ion batteries to the Americas amounted to >151 GWh. This quick development is primarily led by the US market rising its share from 11.5% of world shipments in 2023 to >15% in 2029, as a consequence of enormous demand for EVs and vitality storage (ESS).
Vitality Storage is Quickest-growing
From an software perspective, EV batteries have been, and can stay, the largest market section – accounting 75.9% and 71.7% of whole battery shipments in 2023 and 2029, respectively. Moreover, passenger automobiles will stay the biggest software for lithium-ion batteries. Alternatively, penetration of electrified vehicles and off-road gear will pace up and diversify purposes for EV batteries.
Nonetheless, since 2022, demand for vitality storage batteries has additionally been hovering because of the growth in battery vitality storage installations. In 2023, vitality storage (ESS) battery shipments hit a brand new excessive of almost 204 GWh, or 18.5% of whole battery shipments, and rose to 72.6% year-on-year. Over the forecast interval, ESS batteries are anticipated to develop at a 5-year-CAGR of 25.2%, surpassing EV batteries. Entrance-of-meter (FTM) vitality storage would be the largest software situation for ESS batteries, pushed by the US and Chinese language markets. That is coupled with development in rising nation markets (e.g. India, Chile, Brazil), that are anticipated to deploy vitality storage for photo voltaic and wind tasks throughout the forecast interval. The FTM sector will outpace the behind-the-meter, residential, industrial, and industrial vitality storage markets by 2029.
Asian Firms Dominate Shipments
The worldwide marketplace for lithium-ion batteries has been very concentrated, with the highest 10 distributors accounting for 86.2% of whole shipments in 2023. Of the highest 10 gamers, ATL was the one battery producer specializing in CE purposes. The remaining main distributors all had sturdy presence in EV and ESS battery markets.
The main South Korean and Japanese battery distributors (reminiscent of LGES, SK On and Panasonic) had increased market shares within the EV battery market than within the ESS battery market. These firms ranked third to fifth, respectively, within the world marketplace for EV batteries in 2023.
Within the ESS battery market, all the highest 5 firms got here from China in 2023, owing to the large Chinese language home marketplace for vitality storage. They held a mixed share of 73.8%.
