Examine finds EU hydrogen station rollout could trigger thousands and thousands in annual losses

As hydrogen infrastructure is rolled out within the EU, refueling stations should be distributed in keeping with the identical precept in all international locations. However now a examine from Chalmers College of Expertise in Sweden factors to shortcomings in EU rules.

Utilizing a complicated mannequin, the researchers present that the distribution of refueling stations could each be incorrectly dimensioned and result in losses of tens of thousands and thousands of euros a yr in some international locations.

By 2030, EU international locations will need to have constructed hydrogen refueling stations no less than each 200 kilometers on main roads and one in each city node. The purpose is to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen-powered transport. That is ruled by the Different Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), which entered into drive in 2023.

Nonetheless, a examine from Chalmers, based mostly on information from 600,000 freight routes throughout Europe, reveals that in lots of circumstances the necessities don’t replicate precise demand.

The examine “Geospatial distribution of hydrogen demand and refueling infrastructure for long-haul vans in Europe” was printed within the Worldwide Journal of Hydrogen Power.

By modeling how hydrogen-powered long-haul vans may function in 2050, the researchers present not solely the place demand for hydrogen infrastructure can be highest, but additionally how present EU guidelines threat resulting in massive losses in some international locations.

“EU legislation relies on distance, however visitors volumes differ in different methods between international locations. In line with our mannequin, capability in France must be seven occasions larger in 2050 than what the EU requires by 2030. Consequently, the rollout beneath AFIR works as a primary step on the best way, however will must be supplemented,” says Joel Löfving, doctoral pupil on the Division of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences at Chalmers.

Nonetheless, international locations comparable to Bulgaria, Romania and Greece would not have the identical visitors flows and they’re being compelled to construct infrastructure that’s unlikely for use to the identical extent. This may occasionally quantity to tens of thousands and thousands of euros a yr in funding and working prices for unused capability.

Correct simulation displays demand

Along with bearing in mind visitors volumes and distances, the Chalmers examine consists of topographical information from the European Area Company. One necessary perception is that geographical terrain performs a higher position in vitality demand than was beforehand assumed.

“Many fashions use a mean vitality demand per kilometer for vans. However the demand profile modifications markedly when parameters comparable to gradient and velocity are included. This provides you a extra correct foundation for the place the infrastructure may very well be wanted,” says Joel Löfving.

The examine targeted on long-haul visitors, i.e. distances of greater than 360 kilometers, as shorter distances are prone to be coated by battery-powered items autos sooner or later.

“We thought of the course of expertise improvement for vans. A lot of the present analysis reveals that batteries will be capable of cowl the shorter distances, whereas alternate options comparable to hydrogen could also be wanted as a complement for lengthy distances,” says Joel Löfving.

Political curiosity in demand-based rollout

The researchers’ mannequin seems to be additional than the 2030 necessities and analyzes how investments in hydrogen infrastructure may be sustainable in the long run. The examine has already been used to tell political discussions in each Sweden and the EU on the best way to plan the rollout of hydrogen infrastructure.

“At EU degree, now we have been in a position to present suggestions for the analysis of AFIR that can happen in 2026, and my hope is to affect the event of the legislation in a approach that takes under consideration every nation’s particular circumstances,” says Löfving.

“For Sweden, AFIR is an effective begin, however investing in costly new expertise is at all times dangerous. As a result of the examine has an extended timeframe, now we have been in a position to contribute to the dialogue on the best way to construct an economically sustainable refueling station community that can ultimately make it simpler to create a marketplace for heavy hydrogen autos.”

The examine was carried out throughout the framework of TechForH2, a Chalmers-led middle of excellence for multidisciplinary hydrogen analysis with the general purpose of growing new hydrogen propulsion applied sciences for heavy autos.

It’s also half of a bigger analysis venture that goals to investigate the systemic results of a transition to hydrogen within the transport sector.